我国西北夏季风边界千年尺度变化的证据--来自盐池和猪野泽盐类矿物分析结果   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李育  张成琦  周雪花  王岳 《沉积学报》2015,33(3):524-536

我国夏季风西北缘是响应长尺度气候变化最为敏感的区域之一, 但夏季风边界变化与千年尺度气候变化之间的关系尚不明确, 相关研究仍缺乏足够证据。夏季风西北缘湖泊沉积物中盐类矿物种类与含量的时空变化, 有助于推测气候变化特征。盐池和猪野泽分别位于祁连山北麓的河西走廊中段和东段, 是研究长时间尺度亚洲夏季风影响区西北边界变化的关键区域。研究全新世千年尺度下, 夏季风西北边界的变化对夏季风西北缘气候变化过程的影响, 对明确季风边缘区千年尺度季风变化机制, 预测未来长尺度气候变化有重要意义。因此, 本文选择盐池古湖泊盐池剖面(YC), 猪野泽青土湖01、02剖面(QTH01、QTH02)等三个剖面, 开展全新世千年尺度下, 亚洲季风西北边界地区湖泊沉积物盐类矿物时空变化对比研究。结果显示:QTH01、QTH02剖面盐类矿物以碳酸盐为主, 硫酸盐类矿物仅零星出现, 而YC剖面硫酸盐类矿物含量相对较高, 同时出现了氯化物型矿物, 全新世气候特征整体较猪野泽更为干旱。末次冰期和早全新世, 三个剖面受季风输送水汽影响明显, 碳酸盐类矿物能较好沉积, 季风边界在这一时期向北扩张, 推进到祁连山中段地区;中全新世QTH01、QTH02剖面受夏季风影响减弱, 湖泊退缩, 碳酸盐类矿物含量达到峰值, YC剖面则表现出极端干旱的气候特征, 硫酸盐类矿物因“盐效应”含量下降, 此时夏季风西北部水汽输送边界位于石羊河流域和盐池流域之间;晚全新世盐池和猪野泽均以风成沉积为主, 气候干旱, 碳酸盐类矿物难以保存, 硫酸盐和氯化物矿物含量出现高值, 说明夏季风西北边界进一步向南迁移。综上所述, 盐类矿物含量变化能良好反应夏季风西北缘全新世气候变化特征, 同时证明, 在全新世千年尺度上, 夏季风西北边界在盐池流域和石羊河流域之间存在变化。  相似文献   

一种改进的数值预报降水偏差订正方法及应用   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

孙靖  程光光  张小玲 《应用气象学报》2015,26(2):173-184

对传统的消除偏差法进行改进,形成分等级消除偏差法,并使用混合训练期和60 d滑动训练期方案分别对2012年6—8月ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting) 模式夏季1~5 d的降水预报进行订正试验。为了尽可能符合中国东部夏季降水具有移动性及多种时间尺度变化的特点,混合训练期以预报期前30 d与预报期前一年同日的前后各15 d组成。结果表明:在使用分等级消除偏差法的基础上,相比ECMWF模式降水预报,两种训练期方案的订正结果几乎对各个阈值的ETS评分均有一定提高,特别是对25 mm以上降水预报评分的提高幅度,混合训练期方案的订正结果明显高于60 d滑动训练期方案;在区域性强降水预报的订正中,混合训练期方案优势更为明显。另外,通过分析两种训练期方案的预报偏差发现,分等级订正是此次消除偏差订正试验中提高强降水预报评分的关键,选择合适的训练期可以增加评分提高的幅度。由于上述试验使用的ECMWF模式预报和站点实况均是业务上常用数据,因此,该方法具有一定的业务应用价值。  相似文献   

CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND EASTERN ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON SYSTEM BASED ON FUZZY SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL INVERSION FORECAST     

洪梅  张韧  阎恒乾  葛晶晶 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(S1):34-45

Based on the adaptive network fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), methods to filter out the noise of impact factors from the main signal are discussed. Focusing on the abnormal weather conditions in 2010, we use the delay-relevant method to analyze the five members of the summer monsoon system that had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies from the observational data. ANFIS is suitable for research and simulation of subtropical highs that are difficult to describe accurately with dynamics, allowing the effect of five factors on the subtropical high anomalies to be examined. Our results show that the Mascarene cold high, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies. Diagnostic analysis, with genetic algorithms (GA) and dynamical reconstruction theory, reconstructed the nonlinear dynamical model of the subtropical high and its main factors objectively and accurately from the sequence of observations in 2010. Furthermore, a dynamically extended forecast experiment is performed. The forecasts for the subtropical high area index, the Mascarene cold high index, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough index all show a strong short-term effect over less than 25 days. The forecasting trend is accurate, and the error rate is no more than 7%. Our results provide new insight and methods for research on the association between the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon system, and for the prediction of the western Pacific subtropical high index.  相似文献   

大气热源年代际异常与20世纪70年代末期东亚夏季风年代际减弱   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

张灵玲  谢倩  杨修群 《气象科学》2015,35(6):663-671

利用1958-2001年ERA-40再分析资料计算大气热源,统计分析了亚洲季风区及其邻近海域大气热源年代际变异的典型模态;利用线性斜压干模式,模拟了夏季大气对大气热源年代际异常的响应,揭示了大气热源年代际异常与1970s末期东亚夏季风年代际减弱的关系。结果表明:近50 a来亚洲及其邻近海域夏季整层大气热源变异主要表现为年代际变化特征,其年代际位相转换发生在1970s中后期,这与东亚夏季风年代际减弱的时间一致;菲律宾附近海域和中国西南地区是与东亚夏季风年代际减弱有直接联系的两个热源异常关键区;东亚夏季风年代际减弱最直接地表现为这两个关键区热源异常的共同作用,而赤道中东太平洋、赤道印度洋大气热源增强则通过大气遥响应机制影响菲律宾附近海域低层大气环流异常对东亚夏季风变异起相反的贡献。  相似文献   

基于海温异常的南海夏季风爆发的可预报性分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

邵勰  黄平  黄荣辉 《气象科学》2015,35(6):684-690

定义了综合评估南海地区大气对海温异常等外强迫响应的指数,并以此作为中间变量提出了利用前期海温异常预报南海夏季风爆发早晚的方法,进一步分析了基于海温异常的南海夏季风爆发的可预报性。分析表明:基于前期海温的异常,对于以日为单位预报对象的定量的南海夏季风爆发日期来说,基本没有可预报性;而对于定性的南海夏季风爆发早晚的预测,则可预报性大为提高。其预报时效可以提前至前期秋季的11月份。  相似文献   

Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xiangwen Liu  Tongwen Wu  Song Yang  Weihua Jie  Suping Nie  Qiaoping Li  Yanjie Cheng  Xiaoyun Liang 《大气科学进展》2015,32(8):1156-1172

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.  相似文献   

Relationship between summer rainfall anomalies and sub-seasonal oscillation intensity in the ChangJiang Valley in China     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2015

Sub-seasonal variability of summer (May–October) rainfall over the ChangJiang Valley exhibits two dominant timescales, one with a quasi-biweekly (QBW) period (10–20 days) and the other with an intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) period (20–60 days). A significant positive correlation (at a 99% confidence level) was found between the summer precipitation anomaly and the intensity of the QBW and ISO modes in the region. By examining the composite structure and evolution characteristics, we note that the QBW mode is characterized by a northwest–southeast oriented wave train pattern, moving southeastward. The perturbations associated with the ISO mode propagate northwestward in strong ISO years but southeastward in weak ISO years. A marked feature is the phase leading of low-level moisture to convection in both the QBW and ISO mode. When the summer rainfall is strong in the ChangJiang Valley, large-scale atmospheric conditions in the strong QBW/ISO activity region are characterized by deeper moist layer, convectively more unstable stratification and greater ascending motion. Such mean conditions favor the growth of the QBW and ISO perturbations. Thus, a significant positive correlation between the summer precipitation and the strength of sub-seasonal variability arises from the large-scale control of the summer mean flow to perturbations.  相似文献   

The Relationship between the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Precipitation and Its Interannual Variability over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley          下载免费PDF全文

FU Yuan-Hai 《大气和海洋科学快报》2015,8(3)

The intensity of summer precipitation interannual variability is strongest over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley(MLYRV). The variability is larger than 1.5 mm d–1 and up to 35%–40% of the climatological mean summer precipitation. The relationship between the interdecadal change in the intensity of summer precipitation and its interannual variability over this area is investigated, by analyzing five gauged and re-constructed precipitation datasets. The relationship is found to be very weak over the MLYRV, with a correlation coefficient of only approximately 0.10. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation influences the western North Pacific subtropical high, which is responsible for the interdecadal change in summer precipitation over the MLYRV. However, the precipitation interannual variability is closely related to the ENSO events in the preceding winter due to its impact on the meridional displacement of the East Asian westerly jet. Different physical mechanisms cause different interdecadal variation in the intensity of summer precipitation and its interannual variability, and thus result in a poor relationship.  相似文献   

渤海盐度年代际变异对环流结构的影响   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

毕聪聪  鲍献文  万凯 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2015,45(1):1-8

收集并利用1950年代~1990年代后共5个年代的渤海盐度统计资料,诊断计算了不同时期的渤海密度流分布及其变化。通过对比分析,揭示了冬、夏两季渤海盐度的年代际变异特征及其对环流结构的影响。结果显示,自1980年代以来,渤海的盐度格局发生了显著的变化,盐度的水平梯度减小,渤海内部盐度由明显低于海峡区向普遍高于海峡区转变。渤海密度流在冬季较弱,对总环流的贡献较小,而在夏季较强,并在总环流中占优。夏季,渤海密度流随盐度变异有所改变,在1990年代后环流系统在海区中部、渤海湾以及莱州湾呈现出局部的差异,原有流动明显减弱。夏季渤海重要断面的密度流流量和盐通量值整体上呈减小趋势,渤海与外海间的平均水及盐交换量由1950年代的7.85×104 m3/s、2.49×106kg/s降至1990年代后的7.09×104 m3/s、2.27×106 kg/s。  相似文献   

长江流域夏季气温变化型及其成因Ⅰ：年际变化与遥相关   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

蔡佳熙  管兆勇 《气象学报》2011,69(1):99-111

采用中国气象局整编的气温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、哈得来月平均海温资料以及CPC(NOAA)指数,分析了长江流域夏季气温的变化型及其成因.结果表明:长江中下游地区夏季气温呈现出全区一致、南北反相以及东西反相3种分布型,且这3种分布型分别是中国同号气温异常变化、南北反号气温异常以及东西反号气温异常分布背景下的局部反映.上述这3种气温异常型具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,其中在年际尺度上具有2-5年的周期,反映出在年代际背景下的年际变化;在年际尺度上,3种异常型分别对应不同特点的环流型,并且高度场在长江中下游地区上空的垂直分布均呈准正压结构;3种异常型对应的环流型的维持分别与来自大西洋穿越极区的波列,由地中海沿亚洲急流东传的波列以及北半球环状模有关.同时,全区一致型和南北反相型与P-J型波列联系紧密,其中南北反相型与该波列联系更为紧密;全区一致型与Nino3海温指数呈负相关关系,其中超前一季的负相关最大.南北反相型与Nino3海温指数超前2季相关最高,与Nino4海温指数同时相关最高.东西反相型则与Nino3海温指数同时相关最高,与Nino4海温指数超前3季相关最高.这些结果可为进一步认识长江流域夏季气温变化规律和极端天气气候事件的预测提供线索.  相似文献